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Problems  of  the  Census. 


OPENING  ADDRESS 

BEFORE  THE 

liEBiCAN  Social  Science  Association 


AT  SARATOGA,  SEPT.  5,  1887. 


BY 

CARROLL  D. 


WRIGHT, 


THE  PRESIDENT  OF  THE  ASSOCIATION. 


BOSTON  : 

WRIGHT  &  POTTER  PRINTING  COMPANY, 
18  Post  Office  Square. 

1887. 


I 


Working  People’s  Social 
Science  Club 


Meets  at  Hull-House,  335  South  Halsted  Street,  every  Tuesday 
evening  at  eight  o’clock.  An  address  of  forty-five  minutes 
is  followed  by  an  hour  of  open  discussion. 


.  .  PROGRAMME  .  . 

October  1 1 Chicago  Board  of  Health,”  .  .  .  Dr.  Ware 

October  18  — “Growth  and  Prevention  of  Filth,  Disease, 

Cholera,  etc.”  .  .  '  .  .  Dr  Bayard  Holmes 

October  25 — “A  Nineteenth  Ward  Improvement  Club.” 

Various  Speakers 

November  1 — “The  Homestead  Strike,”  .  .  Bishop  Fallow® 

November  8 — “Arbitration,  Voluntary  and  Compulsory,  ” 

Hon.  C.  D.  Dixon  (framer  of  the  Illinois  Arbitration  Acts) 

November  15 — “A  Defense  of  the  Right  to  Acquire 

Property,”  .  .  .  .  Z.  S  Holbrooke,  LL.D. 

November  22 — “A  Defense  of  the  Chicago  Board  of 

Trade,”  ......  Mr.  C.  C.  Catlin 

November  29 — “Social  Theories  of  Ruskin  and  William 

Morris.”  .....  Miss  Ellen  Gates  Starr 

Decmber  6 — “Municipal  Government,”  .  .  Judge  K.  A.  Otis 


3’ 

m 

M 

t  PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 

<v 

Opening  Address  before  the  American  Social  Science  Association, 

at  Saratoga,  Sept.  5,  1887. 

BY  CARROLL  D.  WRIGHT, 

THE  PRESIDENT  OF  THE  ASSOCIATION. 


V 


Y 


i 


The  adoption  of  a  republican  form  of  government  necessi¬ 
tated  our  Federal  Census.  It  is  a  curious  fact  in  the  develop¬ 
ment  of  statistical  knowledge  that  the  United  States  government 
was  the  first  to  provide  for  a  census  under  the  authority  of 
organic  law,  to  be  taken  at  regular  stated  periods.  Under  the 
law,  and  under  the  necessity,  the  first  federal  census  was 
taken  in  1790.  When  the  Eleventh  Census,  to  be  taken  in  1890, 
shall  have  been  completed,  the  policy  of  our  government  in 
this  respect  will  have  covered  a  century  of  time,  and  the  senti¬ 
ment  which  surrounds  any  centennial  work  will  bring  into 
greater  prominence  than  ever  the  regular  enumeration  of  the 
people  and  the  collection  of  all  the  collateral  facts  compre¬ 
hended  by  the  census  law. 

Other  nations,  and  all  nations  that  have  made  any  great 
progress,  have  adopted  the  American  plan  of  taking  censuses 
at  regular  intervals.  Prior  to  the  adoption  of  this  plan, 
enumerations  of  the  people  were  ordered  by  governments 
whenever  any  particular  necessity,  as  an  enumeration  for 
military  purposes,  demanded.  The  European  Census,  how¬ 
ever,  is  one  thing,  the  American  Census  another. 

The  federal  census  primarily  was  instituted  for  the  purpose 
of  ascertaining  simply  the  number  of  inhabitants  in  the  country, 
on  which  to  base  representation  in  the  popular  legislative 
branch  of  our  federal  government.  As  time  passed  on  and  the 


4 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


necessities  of  enlarging  became  apparent,  it  was  seen  that 
this  enumeration  should  comprehend  something  more  than  the 
numerical  strength  of  the  country.  As  legislation  came  nearer 
and  nearer  the  people  this  necessity  grew  accordingly,  and 
inquiries  seeking  facts  as  to  the  social  conditions  of  the 
inhabitants  began  to  be  added  one  after  the  other  to  the 
census  schedules,  until  now  the  five  schedules  authorized  by 
law  cover  a  wide  range  of  statistical  inquiry.  The  European 
censuses  are  simple,  in  relation  to  the  amount  of  information  to 
be  secured  under  them,  rarely  extending  questions  beyond  those 
involving  number,  age,  birthplace,  and  occupation,  but  the  Euro¬ 
pean  nations  supplement  their  censuses  by,  or,  to  speak  more 
correctly,  the  European  censuses  are  supplemental  to,  a  vast 
deal  of  work  done  by  municipalities,  such  work  including 
the  registration  of  births,  deaths,  and  marriages,  and  various 
other  features  which  are  only  adopted  in  a  fragmentary  way  in 
this  country.  In  our  own  country,  in  addition  to  the  great 
number  of  inquiries  relative  to  social  conditions,  our  census 
comprehends,  and  has  to  a  certain  extent  since  1810,  certain 
economic  features  relating  to  agriculture  and  manufactures. 
The  schedules  now  used,  so  far  as  the  existing  law  is  con¬ 
cerned,  are  five  in  number,  embodying  inquiries  relating, 
first,  to  population  and  social  statistics ;  second,  agriculture ; 
third,  manufactures ;  fourth,  public  indebtedness  and  other 
matters  ;  and  fifth,  mortality. 

In  addition  to  the  federal  census  several  individual  states 
have  censuses,  more  or  less  comprehensive  in  their  character, 
and  usually  coming  on  the  mean  year  between  the  federal 
decennial  enumerations.  Some  of  these  state  censuses  are 
taken  with  great  pains,  involving  scientific  features  and 
covering  a  wide  range  of  inquiries.  Others  are  taken  simply 
with  a  view  to  ascertain  the  number  of  the  people  and  a  few 
facts  concerning  their  condition. 

O 

The  constant  but  gradual  addition  of  inquiries  to  the  federal 
schedules  has  reached  a  point  at  which  Congress  may  well 
pause,  and  consider  the  practical  utility  of  what  has  been,  or 
what  may  be  done  under  the  schedules  as  they  exist.  The 
magnificent  conception  of  General  Walker  for  the  Tenth  Census, 
that  of  1880,  which  has  commanded  the  admiration  of  the  sta¬ 
tisticians  and  economists  of  the  whole  world,  was  the  natural 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


5 


and  perhaps  logical  outgrowth  of  the  gradual  elaboration  of  the 
federal  census.  The  results  comprising  22  quarto  volumes,  or 
a  work  equal  in  magnitude  to  the  Encyclopedia  Britannica,  have 
excited  great  interest,  not  only  on  the  part  of  those  scientifically 
conversant  with  census  work  hut  the  public  at  large.  It  cannot 
be  claimed  that  the  vast  work  of  the  Tenth  Census  is  without 
defects  ;  its  skilful  projector  would  make  no  such  claim.  It 
has  its  defects,  but  chiefly  those  which  are  inherent  in  census 
taking,  and  if  the  Tenth  Census  has  done  no  more,  it  has  devel¬ 
oped  the  limit  to  which  such  undertakings  can  be  carried.  Its 
cost  has  been  little  or  no  greater  per  capita  than  that  of  previous 
censuses  comprehending  but  a  small  proportion  of  the  informa¬ 
tion  contained  in  the  voluminous  reports  which  have  appeared. 

The  value  of  the  Tenth  Census  cannot  be  estimated.  Con¬ 
gress  provided  liberally  to  carry  it  out  on  the  basis  projected. 
It  rose  far  above  the  five  primary  schedules  of  the  census  and 
became  encyclopedic  in  its  character.  It  is  doubtful,  however, 
whether  it  would  be  expedient  for, a  long  term  of  years,  a  gen¬ 
eration  perhaps,  to  again  conduct  the  decennial  census  on  so 
comprehensive  a  basis.  In  fact,  there  are  many  public  men 
who  insist  that  future  enumerations  shall  be  confined  to  the 
simple  enumeration  contemplated  by  the  framers  of  the  consti¬ 
tution,  and  for  the  purposes  only  for  which  it  wras  originally 
instituted.  Such  a  course,  however,  cannot  be  followed.  The 
necessities  of  the  case  will  prevent.  Congress  itself  is  the 
freest  user  of  census  returns,  and  if  the  public,  which  now  takes 
a  greater  interest  than  ever  before  in  census  taking,  can  be  led 
to  appreciate  the  distinctions  in  the  results,  the  value  of  the 
information  secured  can  be  greatly  enhanced. 

It  is  a  timely  topic  then  for  this  association  to  discuss  and 
to  consider  what  problems  can  be  solved,  or  what  solutions  can 
be  aided  through  the  instrumental]’ tv  of  the  next  and  succeeding 
censuses,  taking  it  for  granted  that  the  people  and  Congress 
will  at  once  insist  upon  increased  efficiency  and  increased 
accuracy  of  a  census  to  be  taken  upon  a  basis  which  shall  be 
simple  but  of  sufficient  scope  to  meet  the  actual  wants  of 
the  age ;  for  it  is  recognized  that  no  question  involving  the 
welfare  of  the  nation  can  be  discussed  without  reference  to  the 
census.  No  speech  upon  national  topics  can  be  made  in  Con¬ 
gress  without  using  the  various  facts  ascertained  through  the 


6 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


decennial  enumeration.  No  economic  study,  no  analysis  of 
social  conditions,  can  be  carried  on  without  extensive  use  of 
the  various  features  of  a  national  or  a  state  census ;  and  yet 
there  is  no  task  which  the  government  can  ^et  for  its  officers  to 
perform  so  thankless  as  that  of  census  taking,  and  perhaps  none 
that  can  show  more  thorough  accomplishment  when  the  great 
work  is  completed  and  the  irritation  of  census  taking  has 
passed  away. 

It  should  be  borne  in  mind,  when  census  work  is  being  con¬ 
sidered,  either  from  a  statistical  point  of  view  or  from  the 
standpoint  of  administration,  that  two  grades  of  results  are 
reached.  First,  results  which  are  in  their  very  nature  valuable 
only  because  of  their  being  aggregations.  Such  results  should 
be  accurate.  Second,  those  which  can  only  approximate  aggre¬ 
gations  and  accuracy,  or  results  which  are  just  as  valuable 
through  representative  information  as  if  accurate  aggregates 
had  been  ascertained. 

This  leads  me  to  assert  that  the  principle  of  falsus  in  uno , 
falsus  in  omnibus  cannot  be  applied  to  the  census.  I  have  seen 
it  argued  many  times,  and  by  men  who  should  know  much 
better,  because  one  feature  or  one  line  of  statements  in  a 
census  report  were  faulty  or  even  vicious,  that  all  statements 
in  the  same  census  must  be  faulty  or  vicious. '  This  is  not  a 
logical  position,  and  it  is  well  for  us  to  understand  this  in  the 
beginning  of  our  consideration.  For  instance,  the  information 
relative  to  the  number  of  inhabitants,  their  birthplaces,  their 
occupations,  their  color  and  race,  their  conjugal  condition, 
the  number  constituting  a  family,  and  the  relation  of  each  to 
the  head  of  the  family,  are  points  on  which  positive  and  accu¬ 
rate  information  concerning  nearly  all  the  people  is  usually  and 
easily  obtained.  With  the  exception  of  occupations,  the  state¬ 
ments  in  the  Tenth  Census  in  regard  to  these  points  are 
entitled  to  the  fullest  confidence.  These  are  features  relating 
to  conditions  as  they  exist,  the  answers  to  the  enumerator 
regarding  them  calling  for  no  great  degree  of  intelligence  or  the 
exercise  of  memory  beyond  facts  perfectly  familiar.  There  is 
another  line  of  inquiry,  the  answers  to  which  maybe,  and  often 
are,  very  faulty,  and  the  conclusions  based  upon  them  as  faulty 
as  the  statements.  As  for  instance,  the  questions  as  to  the  parent 
nativity  of  the  people,  their  illiteracy,  physical  condition,  and 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


7 


others  of  like  character,  the  answers  to  which  involve  memory 
or  the  interest  of  the  parties  furnishing  information.  The 
inquiry  as  to  the  age  of  each  person  in  the  community  involves 
some  cloudiness  in  the  answer,  and  yet  on  the  whole  the  results 
are  satisfactory,  the  chief  difficulty  being  with  imported  citizens, 
who  rarely  remember  their  age  as  to  years  but  usually  give  it 
at  the  nearest  even  period ;  so  one  will  always  find  in  all  age 
statistics,  wherever  they  have  been  collected,  whether  in  this 
or  in  other  countries,  a  concentration  on  quinquennial  periods. 
This  concentration,  however,  is  growing  less  and  less  in  our 
own  country,  as  the  influence  of  the  public  schools  reaches  a 
larger  and  larger  number  of  our  children.  Until  this  concen¬ 
tration  is  reduced  to  a  minimum  the  a«'e  statistics  secured  under 

O 

the  census  cannot  be  used  in  a  strictly  scientific  sense  for  the 
establishment  of  mortality  rates,  either  for  insurance  purposes 
or  for  the  common  use  of  determining  the  age  death  rate.  In 
some  localities,  however,  they  are  so  nearly  accurate  as  to  be 
exceedingly  valuable  for  scientific  purposes. 

Statistics  of  illiteracy  receive  much  public  attention.  While 
it  is  evident  from  inherent  conditions  that  the  statistics  of  illit¬ 
eracy  cannot  be  correct,  it  is  fully  apparent  that  whatever  mis¬ 
leading  inferences  may  be  drawn  from  them,  such  inferences 
are  on  the  side  of  safety,  for  if,  for  instance,  under  the  Tenth 
Census  the  returns  showed  that  six  million  people  of  ten  years 
of  age  and  over  were  illiterate  in  the  sense  that  they  could 
neither  read  nor  write,  or  that  they  had  not  acquired  one  or 
the  other  of  these  accomplishments,  it  is  perfectly  safe  to  con¬ 
clude  that  the  number  was  no  less  than  six  million,  but,  as  a 
matter  of  fact,  much  greater  than  that.  So,  any  action  taken 
by  states  individually  or  by  the  federal  government,  based 
upon  the  census  returns  relative  to  illiteracy,  will  be  the  result 
of  truth,  or  less  than  the  truth,  and  no  harm,  therefore,  can 
result  from  their  use,  even  though  the  number  of  illiterates  given 
may  be  only  a  small  proportion  of  the  truth. 

In  1875  the  number  of  aliens  in  Massachusetts  was  ascer¬ 
tained  by  the  state  census,  and  in  1885  this  feature  was  again 
incorporated  and  results  by  place  of  birth  and  other  particulars 
secured.  In  order  to  show  the  absorption  or  non-absorption  of 
immigrants  in  the  ranks  of  citizenship,  and  also  the  extent  to 
which  the  privileges  of  our  form  of  government  are  enjoyed  by 


8 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


those  who  fail  to  attest  their  loyalty  to  our  institutions  by 
renouncing  all  foreign  allegiance,  it  might  be  expedient  to 
incorporate  inquiries  in  the  schedules  of  the  Eleventh  Census 
that  will  supply  full  information  concerning  the  ages,  place  of 
birth,  occupations,  illiteracy,  etc.,  of  our  alien  population. 
The  value  of  such  information  lies  in  the  fact  that  they  are 
true  to  the  extent  given  and  no  harm  can  come  from  incom¬ 
pleteness. 

Another  class  of  facts,  which  can,  from  the  nature  of  things, 
rarely  be  ascertained,  relate  to  physical,  mental,  and  moral 
conditions.  No  enumeration  of  the  insane,  for  instance,  would 
be  accepted  by  our  worthy  secretary,  an  expert  in  such  matters, 
as  correct.  In  my  own  State  when  I  give  the  number  of  the 
insane,'  as  ascertained  under  the  census,  I  am  perfectly  well 
aware  that  his  opinion  is  worth  more  than  my  facts.  It  is  easy 
to  secure  the  number  of  insane,  as  collected  in  institutions  for 
their  care,  but  the  most  searching  census  cannot  ascertain 
accurately  the  number  of  insane  persons  in  a  state.  It  can 
secure  the  most  of  them ;  it  can  secure  all  those  that  are  insane 
to  such  an  extent  that  their  insanity  is  recognized  in  the  com¬ 
munity  in  which  they  live,  but  the  liner  gradations  cannot  be 
comprehended,  except  in  a  partial  degree.  It  is  safe,  therefore, 
to  say  that  the  number  of  insane  reported  by  any  census,  in  any 
state,  does  not  equal  the  fact.  There  is  much  danger  in  this 
class  of  statistics.  We  draw  conclusions  in  regard  to  the 
increase  of  insanity,  conclusions  which  may  be  true  or  false, 
but  more  often  false,  because  previous  enumerations  may  have 
stated  and  probably  did  state  only  half  the  truth,  while  sub¬ 
sequent  enumerations  may  give  four-fifths  of  the  truth,  and 
conclusions  are  usually  based  on  the  assumption  that  the  whole 
truth  was  given  in  each  case. 

The  prevalence  of  idiocy  can  only  be  ascertained  to  a  partial 
extent,  the  results  being  even  more  faulty  than  those  relating 
to  insanity,  because  a  family  might  hesitate  about  giving  the 
facts  relative  to  an  idiot  child  when  they  would  not  hesitate  to 
state  that  an  insane  person  was  a  member  of  the  family. 

These  instances  sufficiently  illustrate  what  I  mean  when  I 
assert  that  some  statements  of  a  census  may  be  absolutely  false, 
and  any  conclusions  based  upon  them  vicious  in  the  extreme, 
while  other  statements  in  the  same  census  may  be  considered 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


9 


as  accurate,  and  deductions  drawn  from  them  acceptable,  even 
in  any  scientific  use  to  which  they  may  be  put. 

Of  course,  there  are  men  and  writers  who  prefer  their  own 
views,  the  results  of  their  personal  observation,  to  the  positive 
statements  of  census  officers.  The  common  error  of  the  empir¬ 
ical  statistician  is  “to  test  facts  by  theory,  instead  of  making 
facts  the  test.”  Men  use  a  theory  oftentimes  as  mechanics  use 
calipers;  if  the  fact  does  not  fit  the  theory  it  is  thrown  aside, 
and  not  considered  a  fact.  To  a  certain  class  of  reformers, 
theorists,  and  specialists,  a  fact  is  a  red  flag,  and  when  shaken 
in  the  face  of  their  opinions  has  the  same  effect  as  when  a  red 
flag  is  shaken  before  the  eyes  of  a  bull  in  the  arena. 

There  is  another  class  who  like  to  take  the  census  with  a 
slate  and  pencil.  These  gentlemen  arc  already  at  work  on  the 
Eleventh  Census  of  the  United  States.  They  have  figured  out 
the  population  of  the  whole  country,  and  of  leading  cities,  and 
no  enumeration  under  the  federal  law  will  convince  these  gen¬ 
tlemen  that  the  population  is  different  from  what  they  have 
estimated. 

The  characteristics  of  the  census  are  often  reversed  in  their 
order  by  men  who  prefer  observation  to  fact.  They  cling  to 
the  features  of  the  census  which  cannot,  by  the  very  nature  of 
things,  be  accurate,  and  they  attack  and  antagonize  those  fea¬ 
tures  which  are  more  likely  than  all  others  to  be  precisely  as 
stated  in  the  census  reports. 

Now,  the  solution  of  social  problems  depends  upon  the  faith¬ 
fulness,  of  course,  of  the  parties  whose  duty  it  is  to  collect 
facts.  The  faithfulness  of  these  parties  in  turn  depends  upon 
the  extent  or  the  comprehensiveness  of  the  census  inquiries. 
The  intelligence  of  the  people  constitutes  an  important  factor, 
but  in  any  community  where  a  census  is  possible  this  intelli¬ 
gence  is  fully  equal  to  answering  the  questions  which  legiti¬ 
mately  belong  in  the  schedules. 

The  progress  of  insanity  can  be  ascertained  through  the  cen¬ 


sus,  and  the  present  problem  as  to  whether  insanity  increases 
with  our  advancing  civilization,  increased  facilities  for  securing 
education,  and  all  the  beneficent  influences  which  we  boast 
comes  from  our  advanced  position,  can  be  solved.  It  is  a  vital 
question  and  one  which  demands  the  persistent  efforts  of  the 
government  in  ascertaining  exact  facts.  It  will  take  several 


10 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


decades  of  years,  however,  to  bring  the  enumeration  of  the 
insane  to  such  perfection  that  the  margin  of  error  growing  out 
of  insufficient  data  shall  no  longer  be  a  factor  in  determining 
results.  In  this  work  the  states  can  perform  far  more  satisfac¬ 
tory  labor  than  can  the  federal  government. 

Another  line  of  information  sought  for  by  the  federal  cen¬ 
sus,  of  necessity,  are  the  statistics  of  mortality.  Several  of 
the  states  have  established  registration  boards  or  created  regis- 
tration  offices  for  the  registration  of  births,  deaths,  and  mar¬ 
riages  through  municipal  and  county  returns.  This  is  in 
conformity  to  the  European  custom  and  is  the  only  method 
by  which  the  facts  relating  to  births,  deaths,  and  marriages  can 
be  ascertained  with  the  fullest  degree  of  accuracy.  But 
the  states  of  the  union  are  so  few  which  have  taken  up  this 
work  that  the  federal  census  takers  have  added  to  their 
schedules  one  relating  to  mortality,  and  so  in  those  states  not 
collecting  such  statistics  a  series  of  questions  is  asked  con¬ 
cerning  deaths  occurring  during  the  year  closing  with  the 
census  day.  A  moment’s  consideration  of  this  point  convinces 
any  one  that  such  statistics  must  be  far  from  satisfactory ;  they 
are,  however,  always  less  than  the  truth.  It  would  seem  at  first 
glance  quite  impossible  for  a  family,  in  giving  information  to 
an  enumerator,  to  forget  that  a  death  had  occurred  during  the 
previous  year;  yet  such  is  often  the  case,  and  the  consequence 
is  that  death  rates  in  localities  where  medical  science  would 
insist  they  were  the  highest  are  often  shown  to  be  the  lowest. 
The  death  rate  in  states  where  there  is  a  reasonably  accurate 
registration  of  deaths  under  legal  requirements  is  often  higher, 
so  far  as  statistics  show,  than  is  ascertained  through  the  census 
for  states  where  such  requirements  do  not  exist.  This  defect  is 
true  as  relates  to  births  and  marriages,  and  yet  I  see  no  reason 
why  the  United  States  census  should  not  be  made  to  compre¬ 
hend  such  statistics  in  those  states  where  registration  reports 
are  not  required.  Even  with  their  defects  they  become  more 
and  more  accurate,  and  are  useful,  as  time  goes  on,  in 
determining  the  increase  or  decrease  in  death  rates  for  any 
specified  locality,  but  they  are,  and  must  be,  quite  useless  in 
comparing  rates  in  communities  widely  separated  and  which 
come  under  varying  sanitary  conditions  or  conditions  of 
disease. 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


11 


Censuses  of  mortality  can  solve  the  relative  death  rates 
of  different  races  in  this  country,  a  question  which  constitutes 
a  vital  problem.  Plow  exceedingly  valuable  it  would  be  could 
the  exact  facts  in  this  connection  be  determined  in  regard  to 
the  Indians,  the  colored  people,  the  adopted  citizens  of  differ¬ 
ent  climes  as  in  comparison  with  the  death  rate  of  what  may 
be  called  American  stock,  nor  would  there  be  any  less  value 
connected  with  the  birth  and  marriage  rates  of  the  same  classes 


of  people.  In  some  of  our  states  where  birth,  death,  and  mar¬ 
riage  returns  are  required  by  law  these  facts  can  be  determined, 
and  logical  conclusions  drawn  therefrom,  but  unfortunately  for 
the  scientist  these  returns  are  rarely  called  for  in  the  very 
communities  where  they  would  be  most  useful  in  solving  the 
problems  involved  in  them. 

The  division  of  labor  which  marks  this  a<>*e  as  distinct  in  all 

O 


its  industrial  features  from  previous  periods  constitutes  a  very 
interesting  study.  The  attempt  has  been  made  in  the  Census 
of  1885,  for  the  Commonwealth  of  Massachusetts,  the  reports 
of  which  are  now  rapidly  approaching  completion,  to  ascertain 
and  report  to  the  finest  degree  the  various  but  distinctly 
designated  divisions  of  labor,  so  far  as  the  occupations  of  the 
people  are  involved.  Incomprehensible  as  it  may  seem,  this 
classification  shows  over  20,000  distinct  designations.  This 
classification,  in  connection  with  nationality  as  shown  by  place 
of  birth,  age  periods,  and  illiteracy,  constitutes  a  fine  contribu¬ 
tion  to  sociological  knowledge.  This  has  been  done  in  Massa¬ 
chusetts.  It  may  be  done  for  the  United  States  in  the  future, 
now  that  the  basis  has  been  laid. 

The  statistics  of  place  of  birth  and  parent  nativity  are  among 
the  most  valuable  features  of  the  census,  a  value  which  is  more 
thoroughly  appreciated  at  the  present  time  through  the  popu¬ 
lar  discussion  of  the  question  of  the  restriction  of  immigration. 
The  census  renders  one  perfectly  competent  to  show  the  absorp¬ 
tion  of  foreign  elements  in  various  branches  of  industry,  and 
the  extent  of  the  absorption.  The  Tenth  Census,  should  this 
question  come  before  Congress,  contains  the  only  present 
means  of  determining,  so  far  as  industry  is  concerned,  the 
influence  of  such  absorption. 

There  are  still  sociological  conditions  which  have  not  been 
included  in  the  federal  census  and  which  it  may  not  be  advis- 


12 


PKOBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


able  to  incorporate  in  the  schedules.  Some  of  these  have 
been  adopted  in  our  Massachusetts  Census  with  success,  the 
most  important  of  them  being  questions  as  to  the  birth  rate 
among  foreign  and  American  mothers,  this  birth  rate  being 
brought  into  comparison  with  the  number  of  children  reared. 
It  embraces  one  of  the  most  interesting  questions  for  the  social 
scientist,  and,  so  far  as  I  know,  the  Massachusetts  State  Census 
furnishes  the  only  facts  of  like  nature  obtainable  in  this  or  any 
other  country.  It  has  been  a  piece  of  experimental  work  on 
the  part  of  the  state.  It  only  indicates  what  can  be  done  in 
solving  scientific  questions,  when  the  people  are  asked  to 
answer  inquiries  directed  to  what  on  the  surface  may  be  con¬ 
sidered  matters  on  which  the  state  should  make  no  inquiry. 
The  extension  of  special  inquiries  in  the  direction  named,  that 
is,  those  aimed  at  the  real  inside  life  of  the  people,  is  to  my 
mind  perfectly  justifiable.  The  law  making  power  of  the  state, 
especially  in  America,  is  constantly  called  upon  to  exercise 
greater  and  greater  supervision  over  the  affairs  of  the  people. 
To  do  this  it  has  to  assume  autocratic  power.  Boards  of 
health  can  order  private  dwellings  to  be  vacated,  and  the  con¬ 
venience  of  the  individual  in  such  cases  is  sacrificed  to  the 
welfare  of  the  community.  This  spirit  prevails  in  all  direc¬ 
tions.  The  law  making  branch  of  our  governments  cannot 
resist  the  demands ;  call  it  socialism,  if  you  choose,  the 
tendency  is  as  strong  as  it  is  perceptible,  and  as  inevitable  as 
it  is  strong.  We  insist  that  the  dependent  classes  shall  be 
cared  for  at  the  public  expense  ;  we  say  that  individual  mem¬ 
bers  of  society  shall  be  relieved  of  special  taxation  for  the 
support  of  the  dependent,  because  their  support  is  for  the 
benefit  of  the  whole  community.  The  doctrine  is  right,  and 
just,  and  moral.  This  being  the  case,  the  legislature  meets  the 
demand.  Shall  it  meet  the  demand  intelligently  or  blindly? 
The  statistician  says  he  should  meet  it  intelligently,  and  that 
statistical  science  is  the  chief  source  of  intelligence  in  such 
matters.  Statistics  covering  the  whole  community  must  be 
taken  through  the  census.  It  must  comprehend  all  or  none. 
So,  as  the  inquiries  of  the  census  have  become  enlarged,  per¬ 
sons  afflicted  with  acute  and  chronic  diseases,  the  blind,  deaf, 
dumb,  maimed,  lame,  insane,  idiotic,  paralytic,  bedridden,  and 
other  afflicted  persons,  have  come  under  the  searching  inqui- 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


13 


ries  of  the  enumerator.  The  people  object  to  these  things  when 
the  inquiry  comes.  They  insist  upon  intelligent  legislation 
regarding  them.  Popular  antagonism  to  such  inquiries  must, 
therefore,  be  ignored  by  the  legislature,  in  order  to  meet  the 
advanced  demands  of  the  very  people  who  create  the  antagonism. 

The  Tenth  Census  sought  information  on  these  points  to  a 
fuller  extent  than  ever  before,  yet  the  facts  secured  were  so  in¬ 
complete  that  little  or  no  use  was  made  of  them.  This  should 
not  prevent  their  repetition  to  a  reasonable  degree. 

So  with  homeless  children  and  paupers.  Our  pauperism  in¬ 
creases  much  faster  statistically  than  actually,  because  we  are 
constantly  classifying  new  features  of  pauperism.  Statistically, 
we  reach  out  and  take  in  all  that  are  in  any  way  dependent 
upon  the  public  treasury.  As  against  the  old  crude  and  unde¬ 
fined  information  relative  to  pauperism,  we  have  intelligent, 
comprehensive  statistics,  which,  in  themselves,  prove  a  vast 
increase  in  pauperism,  because  we  try  to  match  comparative 
accuracy  with  crudeness.  The  result  is  against  us  in  this  period. 
We  must  go  on  with  the  statistical  research,  however,  until 
accuracy  is  the  rule,  and  the  comparisons  are  made  on  the  con¬ 
ditions  of  accuracy  and  become  as  intelligent  as  the  facts  them¬ 
selves.  When  the  legislature  appreciates  the  exact  propor¬ 
tions  of  pauperism,  as  pauperism  includes  not  only  the 
ordinary  condition  known  as  such  but  that  of  all  the  homeless 
children  which  must  be  cared  for  by  society,  it  can  shape  its 
law  making  with  greater  intelligence  and  with  more  advantage 
to  the  community. 

Social  statistics  should  go  still  further,  and  comprehend  all 
conditions  of  work,  of  education,  and  of  school  attendance,  sur¬ 
rounding  the  children  of  the  land.  All  these  ramifications  of 
statistical  knowledge  have  been  brought  within  the  scope  of  the 
census,  because  the  knowledge  Avas  demanded  by  the  people  of 
the  government.  The  government  is  wise  that  recognizes  the 
demand  and  furnishes  the  information. 

Believing,  as  I  do,  that  advanced  sociological  knowledge  can 
be,  and  should  be  secured  through  the  instrumentality  of  fed¬ 
eral  and  state  censuses,  I  would  still  insist  that  the  collection 
of  such  knowledge,  so  far  as  methods  are  concerned,  be  confined 
to  the  simplest  forms  possible  and  to  such  proportions  as  to 
bring  it  under  actual  enumeration. 


14 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


So  far  I  have  treated  of  social  statistics ;  those  relating  en- 
tirely  to  people,  as  people,  in  their  conditions  in  society,  and 
in  the  relations  of  individual  to  individuals  and  to  the  State. 
These  features  are  common  in  a  greater  or  less  degree  to  all 
advanced  countries,  the  information  concerning  them,  as  I  have 
said,  not  being  always  ascertained  through  the  census.  A 
feature  of  our  United  States  census,  which  is  not  common  in 
other  nations  but  which  belongs  entirely  to  the  American 
plan,  relates  to  industrial  statistics.  In  1810  the  government 
undertook,  at  the  time  of  the  enumeration  of  that  year,  to  col¬ 
lect  information  relating  to  the  industries  of  the  country,  so  far 
as  manufactures  were  concerned.  Eventually,  of  course,  this 
effort  was  extended  to  agriculture,  so  that  now,  and  in  several 
decennial  censuses,  the  progress  of  the  country,  and  various 
facts  relating  to  production,  have  become  important  features  of 
our  enumerations.  Much  harm  has  been  done,  as  well  as  great 
good  accomplished,  by  this  extension  of  census  powers.  It  is 
often  urged  that  Congress  has  no  right  to  collect  such  informa- 
tion,  but  the  constitution  clearly  gives  authority  to  Congress  to 
take  such  action  as  shall  be  necessary  for  the  general  informa¬ 
tion  of  the  people.  How  far  such  inquiries  may  be  extended 
is  a  legitimate  question.  The  principle  involved  is  generally 
acknowledged  now  as  being  sound  and  in  the  interest  of  the 

o  o 

best  public  polity.  I  am  satisfied,  however,  that  any  elaborate 
attempt  on  the  part  of  the  federal  government  in  the  direc¬ 
tion  of  securing  information  of  economic  importance  will  be, 
as  it  has  been,  attended  with  ill  success.  The  extent  to  which 
efforts  should  be  made  seems  to  me  to  be  quite  clearly  estab¬ 
lished  by  experience  in  this  direction  under  federal  and  state 
censuses.  The  problems  which  can  be  solved  are  few  but 
important,  and  these  should  be  clearly  understood  before 
inquiries  are  made  to  secure  general  economic  information. 

I  said  just  now  that  much  harm  had  been  done  since  1810 
through  the  industrial  features  of  the  federal  census.  There 
has  been  no  desire  to  do  harm,  but  the  harm  has  come  as 
results,  first,  of  imperfect  inquiries,  or  inquiries  of  insufficient 
scope ;  and  second,  from  an  indisposition  on  the  pail  of  manu¬ 
facturers  to  give  certain  information,  while  perfectly  willing  to 
give  facts  in  general,  thus  creating  great  inharmony  in  the 
results  obtained.  I  have  called  public  attention  so  often  dur- 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


15 


ing  the  past  few  years  to  some  of  the  harm  which  has  been 
done  that  I  feel  that  I  am  simply  repeating  myself  now  in 
again  reciting  the  facts.  Yet  I  believe  it  the  duty  of  all  men 
engaged  in  any  statistical  work,  or  upon  economic  studies,  to 
do  their  utmost  to  secure  accuracy  in  statistical  undertakings, 
and  do  not  hesitate  to  again,  and  on  this  occasion,  call  public 
attention  to  some  of  the  evils  of  the  industrial  censuses. 

The  industrial  schedule  of  the  federal  census,  since  it  was 
authorized  by  law  and  in  nearly  every  census  taken  since  and 
including  that  of  1810,  has  contained  inquiries  relating  to 
capital  invested,  raw  material  or  stock  used,  total  wages  paid, 
aggregate  product,  and  the  number  of  employes,  in  the  leading 
industries  of  the  country.  To  these  simple  inquiries  the  man¬ 
ufacturers  have  from  time  to  time  made  great  opposition, 
although,  as  a  rule,  they  have  supplied  information  as  to  all 
the  points  involved,  except  capital  invested.  The  census  in¬ 
quiry  on  this  point  has  called  simply  for  capital  invested.  In 
this  form  lies  the  initial  defect.  In  response  to  this  the  manu¬ 
facturer  has  always  been  expected  to  state  the  capital  actually 
paid  in  and  used  in  plant  of  whatever  nature  and  as  working 
capital.  That  he  has  given  nothing  more  has  not  been  his 
fault,  for  he  has  not  been  asked  for  more.  What  has  been  the 
result?  This  can  be  more  clearly  indicated  by  a  simple  illus¬ 
tration,  and  for  figures  I  will  use  exact  proportions  as  they 
have  occurred,  simply  putting  them  into  round  numbers  but 
preserving  true  relations. 

Let  us  suppose  an  industry  in  which  there  are  four  establish¬ 
ments,  each  producing  $1,000,000  worth  of  product  in  a  single 
year,  the  total  value  of  the  product  of  the  four  establishments 
being,  therefore,  $4,000,000.  The  capital  invested  of  estab¬ 
lishment  No.  1  is  $1,000,000,  this  amount  of  money  having 
been  paid  in  by  the  proprietors  and  being  sufficient  in  all 
respects  to  cover  plant  of  all  kinds,  tools,  implements,  and 
working  capital,  for  the  production  of  $1,000,000  worth  of 
goods.  Establishment  No.  2  produces  $1,000,000  worth  also, 
but  has  only  $300,000  actually  invested.  It  borrows  annually 
on  the  average  $700,000,  giving  the  establishment  the  use  of 
$1,000,000  of  capital.  Establishment  No.  3  actually  owns 
$500,000  of  capital,  invested  in  proper  ways,  and  borrows 
$500,000  more.  Establishment  No.  4  uses  $200,000  of  its  own 


16 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


capital  and  borrows  $800,000.  Each  of  these  establishments 
has,  as  I  have  said,  produced  $1,000,000  worth  of  goods  during 
the  census  year.  The  result  for  the  four  is  $2,000,000  of  capi¬ 
tal  actually  paid  in  and  $2,000,000  of  borrowed  capital.  In 
all  census  returns  the  $2,000,000  capital  paid  in  would  be  the 
whole  amount  of  capital  invested  returned.  The  relation  then 
stands  $2,000,000  of  capital  invested,  producing  $4,000,000 
worth  of  product ;  the  actual  fact  being,  and  a  fact  which  has 
never  yet  appeared  in  any  census,  that  $4,000,000  were  neces¬ 
sary  in  capital  for  the  production  of  the  $4,000,000  worth  of 
goods.  It  is  perfectly  apparent  on  this  statement,  which,  as  I 
have  said,  is  a  truthful  illustration,  that  all  calculations  based 
upon  the  returns  must  be  vicious  in  toto ,  because  $4,000,000 
worth  of  product  in  the  given  industry  cannot  be  secured  by 
the  employment  of  $2,000,000  of  capital,  the  necessary  capital 
being  $4,000,000.  One  need  not  study  this  simple  problem 
very  long  to  enable  him  to  understand  that  one  of  the  chief 
factors  of  disturbances,  or  of  antagonism,  or  of  misunderstand¬ 
ing  between  labor  and  capital,  has  grown  from  this  misused 
term  of  capital  invested.  No  attempt  has  ever  been  made  in 
this  country,  until  that  put  forth  in  the  Census  of  Massachu¬ 
setts  for  1885,  to  correct  the  egregious  error.  Credit  capital, 
it  is  submitted,  if  used,  is  just  as  essential  to  secure  a  certain 
product  as  the  capital  that  is  owned  by  an  establishment  itself. 
Leaving  out  the  factor  of  the  expensiveness  of  the  use  of  bor¬ 
rowed  capital,  of  the  fictitious  or  inflated  value  which  is  given 
to  the  product  by  such  use,  and  limiting  ourselves  to  the  purely 
economic  relations  of  capital  and  product,  infinite  harm  has 
been  done  by  the  old  method  of  procedure.  To  solve  the 
problem  of  the  amount  of  capital  required  to  secure  a  given 
product  in  each  of  the  leading  industries  of  a  country  is  within 
the  ability  of  the  census  taker.  The  manufacturers  have  stood 
in  their  own  light.  The  manufacturer  tells  you  at  once  that 
$2,000,000  of  capital  cannot  produce  $4,000,000  worth  of 
ffoods.  The  conclusive  answer  to  his  statement  is  that  such  is 

c 

the  return  he  has  made.  He  then  tells  you  that  census  statis¬ 
tics  are  vicious,  and  he  is  correct  in  this  particular  instance. 
If  you  attempt  to  correct  this  error  by  asking  him  to  account 
for  his  whole  capital,  that  paid  in  and  that  borrowed,  in  fact, 
all  the  capital  which  he  uses  to  secure  a  given  product,  he 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


17 


antagonizes  the  work  of  the  state  by  saying  that  you  are  prying 
into  his  private  affairs.  He  does  not  perceive  that  he  has 
deceived  not  only  himself  and  his  employes  but  the  public 
generally,  and  that  every  argument,  conclusion,  or  deduction, 
based  upon  the  statistics  reported  as  giving  the  capital  invested 
in  manufacturing,  is  false  in  all  its  elements  and  consequently 
exerts  a  vicious  influence  in  every  direction. 

Great  difficulty  has  been  experienced  in  solving  this  problem 
in  my  own  State,  in  the  recent  census,  through  just  this  class 
of  antagonism.  I  am  happy  to  say,  however,  that  so  far  as 
the  matter  has  been  explained  to  manufacturers  and  they  have 
comprehended  the  situation,  they  have  cheerfully  complied 
with  the  State’s  request,  until  all  or  nearly  all  manufacturers 
of  any  consequence,  those  carrying  on  any  business  of  a  suffi¬ 
cient  magnitude  to  entitle  them  to  the  name  of  manufacturers, 
have  complied  with  the  State’s  requirements,  and  we  shall  be 
able,  for  the  first  time  in  the  history  of  this  country’s  industrial 
statistics,  to  show  the  true  ratio  of  capital  invested  to  product. 

The  difficulty  which  I  have  stated  is  not  the  only  complica¬ 
tion  which  exists.  For  instance,  a  man  goes  into  the  business 
of  manufacturing  a  line  of  goods  with  little  or  no  capital,  say 
$5,000,  but  he  has  an  excellent  credit.  He  purchases  raw 
material  and  all  his  supplies  on  long  time,  three,  four,  or  six 
months,  but  sells  the  product  of  his  establishment  for  cash  or 
its  equivalent.  In  this  condition  of  affairs  he  may  produce  say 
$200,000  worth  of  goods  in  a  given  year,  having  but  $5,000 
actually  invested.  In  all  census  statistics  this  would  be  the 
only  sum  that  would  appear,  while  $200,000  would  appear  as 
the  value  of  the  product.  The  truth  is  he  has  borrowed  of  his 
own  customers  sufficient  capital  to  produce  the  $200,000  worth 
of  goods. 

These  illustrations  are  sufficient  to  show  the  viciousness  of 
all  census  statements  which  have  yet  appeared  in  this  country, 
whether  in  my  own  reports  or  elsewhere,  relative  to  capital 
invested  and  its  product,  in  the  various  leading  industries. 
It  does  not  matter  where  capital  used  in  the  production 
of  goods  comes  from,  whether  it  be  paid  in  by  the  proprietors 
of  an  establishment,  whether  it  be  borrowed  by  them,  or 
whether  it  be  the  result  of  long  time  purchases  of  material ; 
so  long  as  all  these  elements  of  capital  are  essential  to  secure 


18 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


a  given  product,  they  constitute  capital  invested  and  should 
be  covered  by  any  census  inquiry  into  industrial  conditions. 

Another  error  which  has  been  made  relates  to  average  earn¬ 
ings,  as  ascertained  by  dividing  the  aggregate  wages  paid  in 
any  industry  by  the  number  of  employes  involved.  In  all 
censuses  where  industrial  statistics  have  been  a  feature  in  this 
country,  until  the  Tenth  Census,  the  question  relating  to  em¬ 
ployes  has  simply  been  the  “  number  of  hands  employed.” 
What  is  the  number  of  hands  employed?  Can  you  ascertain 
the  true  quotient  which  shall  represent  average  wages  by 
dividing  the  total  amount  of  wages  paid  during  a  year  in  any 
given  industry  by  the  total  number  of  hands  employed?  I 
assert  that  you  cannot,  for  the  number  of  hands  employed 
returned  under  the  old  form  of  inquiry  simply  meant  the 
number  of  employes  borne  on  the  rolls  at  the  close  of  the  census 
year,  while  the  total  wages  paid  represented  the  aggregate 
amount  disbursed  in  the  form  of  wages  to  all  who  had  been 
employed  at  any  time  during  the  same  year ;  the  number 
of  people  returned  might  represent  a  much  larger  number  at 
the  close  of  the  year  than  were  employed  at  any  other  period, 
or  the  reverse,  a  much  smaller  number.  In  any  event,  and 
with  the  utmost  care  on  the  part  of  the  manufacturer,  it  would 
be  impossible  in  the  answer  to  such  a  form  of  inquiry  to  state 
anything  more  than  the  number  employed  at  the  end  of  the 
year,  or  at  some  stated  period. 

Under  the  Tenth  Census  the  form  of  inquiry  was  changed  so 
as  to  bring  out  a  statement  of  the  average  number  employed 
during:  the  year,  which  constituted  the  divisor  to  enter  into  the 
dividend  of  total  wages  ;  but  this  is  vicious  also,  for  the  average 
number  does  not  represent  the  actual  number  to  whom  wages 
were  paid  nor  in  any  sense  represent  the  mathematical  distri¬ 
bution  of  the  same  amount  of  money.  A  very  much  larger 
number  of  individuals  might  have  been  involved,  or  a  very 
much  smaller  number,  during  a  large  proportion  of  the  year. 
The  only  way  in  which  the  actual  average  earnings  of  the  em¬ 
ployes  in  a  large  establishment,  or  in  all  the  establishments  in 
a  given  industry,  can  be  secured  through  the  census  is  by  the 
tedious  mathematical  process  of  calculating  each  man’s  time  and 
the  actual  amount  paid  to  him.  This  I  submit  cannot  be  done 
without  such  a  great  amount  of  labor  as  to  make  it  practically 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


19 


impossible  ;  nor  can  a  government  reasonably  require  the  manu¬ 
facturers  of  a  community  to  give  such  time  as  would  be 
necessary  for  a  complete  and  accurate  answer  to  the  inquiry. 

These  two  questions,  capital  invested  and  average  wages, 
illustrate  the  fallacy  of  attempting  to  solve  a  certain  line 
of  economic  questions  through  the  census  as  it  has  existed. 
In  making  this  criticism  let  it  be  understood  that  I  arraign 
myself  as  severely  as  any  one  else,  for  until  within  a  few  years 
I  have  followed,  in  all  the  census  work  in  which  I  have  been 
engaged,  the  old  form,  nor  did  I  fully  comprehend  the  enor¬ 
mity  of  the  error,  the  infinite  harm  it  has  done  and  is  likely  to 
do,  until  I  undertook  to  ascertain  the  relation  of  capital  inves¬ 
ted  to  product,  with  a  view  to  learning  the  proportion  of 
product  which  went  to  capital  and  labor  respectively.  It  is  now 
also  perfectly  apparent  to  me  that  when  census  questions  relat¬ 
ing  to  industry  are  so  framed  as  to  secure  thoroughly  worthless 
results,  there  is  no  difficulty  whatever  in  taking  a  census,  but 
the  moment  they  are  framed  to  secure  valuable  results,  the  census 
taker  meets  with  innumerable  obstacles  and  the  greatest  antag- 
onism  on  the  part  of  the  very  men  whose  interest  it  should  be 
to  furnish  thoroughly  accurate  statistics.  This  is  a  question  of 
educational  influence  to  be  exercised  by  careful  statisticians,  by 
securing  the  confidence  of  the  producers  of  the  country  in  the 
statement  that  no  harm  shall  come  from  their  giving  free,  full, 
and  accurate  answers  to  all  the  inquiries  instituted  by  the  gov¬ 
ernment. 

The  only  way  to  secure  the  best  results  of  an  industrial  cen¬ 
sus  is  to  bring  the  inquiries  to  simple,  easily  understood  forms, 
involving  individual  facts,  relieved  of  all  features  of  compound 
inquiry,  thus  avoiding  compound  answers.  These  inquiries,  it 
seems  to  me,  may  be  limited  to  the  following  items  in  general, 
that  is  to  say,  the  census  should  ascertain  : 

First :  the  capital  invested  in  each  industry,  the  term  capital 
invested  comprehending  all  that  I  have  stated. 

Second  :  the  value  of  the  principal  stock  or  raw  material 
used. 

Third  :  the  gross  quantity  and  value  of  articles  manufactured, 
as  represented  by  their  selling  value. 

Fourth  :  the  number  of  partners  or  stockholders  ;  the  largest, 


20 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


smallest,  and  average  number  of  persons  employed,  distin¬ 
guishing  as  to  sex,  adults,  and  children. 

Fifth :  the  total  wages  paid  during  the  year,  distinguishing 
also  as  to  sex,  adults,  and  children. 

Sixth  :  the  proportion  that  the  business  of  the  year  bore  to 
the  greatest  capacity  for  production  of  the  establishment. 

Seventh  :  the  number  of  weeks  in  operation  during  the  year, 
partial  time  being  reduced  to  full  time. 

I  do  not  believe  there  is  any  need  of  extending  the  inquiries 
beyond  these.  The  forms  might  be  modified  or  varied,  but  the 
principles  involved  should  be  retained.  Each  and  every  one 
of  the  inquiries  are  of  great  value,  and  from  them  results  of  the 
greatest  importance  to  the  manufacturers  themselves  ought  to 
be  secured.  The  inquiry  relating  to  the  number  of  persons 
employed  is  the  least  practical  of  them  all,  yet  as  it  is  given  it 
is  essential  to  any  complete  statistics.  Such  inquiries  I  would 
have  made  at  frequent  intervals,  the  first  effect  of  which  would 
be  to  enlighten  the  public  mind  in  regard  to  the  supposed  loss 
in  the  volume  of  production  during  years  when  it  is  appre¬ 
hended  that  an  industrial  depression  prevails.  In  fact,  a  state¬ 
ment  at  short  intervals  of  the  volume  of  production  in  the 
leading  industries  of  the  country  would  go  far  towards  remov¬ 
ing  apprehension  as  to  such  depressions. 

The  next  great  advantage  to  be  gained  from  a  frequent 
inquiry  upon  a  simple  basis  like  that  designated  relates  to  the 
proportion  that  the  business  of  the  year  in  any  industry  bore 
to  the  greatest  capacity  for  production  of  the  establishments 
existing  in  the  same  industry.  Such  an  inquiry,  when  an¬ 
swered  correctly,  supplies  means  for  a  comparison  between 
the  actual  business  done  during  the  year  involved  and  the 
greatest  business  that  could  have  been  done  if  all  the  establish¬ 
ments  had  been  run  to  their  fullest  capacity,  that  is,  if  the 
greatest  possible  number  of  employes  that  could  have  been 
advantageously  employed,  with  a  certain  plant  or  facilities,  had 
been  employed  actively  on  all  the  working  days  during  the 
year  to  the  fullest  capacity.  Such  a  line  of  facts  would 
supply  material  for  the  proper  management  of  great  productive 
establishments  in  such  a  way  that  the  output  could  be  more 
scientifically  considered,  and  some  of  the  haphazard  methods  of 
production  now  in  vogue  eliminated. 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


21 


Practically,  I  do  not  believe  manufacturers  would  object  to 
such  a  schedule  as  I  have  indicated.  There  is  nothing  in  it  to 
involve  great  labor,  while  it  supplies  all  the  material  informa¬ 
tion  which  it  is  wise  to  comprehend  in  the  census,  and  if  the 
approaching  Eleventh  Census  can  secure  information  in  ac¬ 
cordance  with  such  inquiries,  modified,  if  need  be,  in  form,  the 
influence  upon  the  public  mind  will  be  so  salutary  that  I  believe 
the  states  themselves  will  eventually  inaugurate  movements  to 
secure  at  short  intervals  the  same  class  of  facts. 

Manufacturing  statistics,  as  contemplated  by  the  ordinary 
census  schedule  used  in  the  federal  censuses,  cannot  give  such 
information  as  to  enable  one  to  classify  wages  to  any  great 
extent  or  to  ascertain  earnings.  Rates  of  wages,  and  all  facts 
relating  to  rates  of  wages,  possible  earnings,  actual  earnings, 
labor  conditions,  and  various  other  features,  must  be  left  to 
special  investigations.  The  gross  quantity  of  goods  manufac¬ 
tured  should  be  brought  out  in  the  fullest  way,  in  such  an 
account  as  I  have  indicated,  because  quantity  is  the  true  meas¬ 
ure  of  production  rather  than  value.  This  and  other  questions, 
the  value  of  the  answers  to  which  depends  upon  complete  aggre¬ 
gates,  can  be  secured  through  the  federal  census,  but  the 
federal  census  should  be  relieved  of  a  great  deal  of  the  minu¬ 
tiae  of  statistical  work  by  state  bureaus  and  offices.  In  fact, 
with  the  twenty-two  bureaus  of  statistics  of  labor,  the  boards 
of  agriculture,  and  offices  of  industrial  statistics,  which  exist 
in  this  country,  we  ought  to  eliminate  the  minute  details  of 
inquiry  in  many  directions  which  have  heretofore  formed  a  part 
of  the  federal  census. 

Perhaps  the  greatest  difficulty  which  confronts  the  federal 
census  taker,  and  which  offers  the  least  possibility  of  solving 
problems,  is  to  be  found  in  the  agricultural  department  of  the 
work.  The  products  of  various  localities  differ  so  widely  in 
their  character  and  kind,  that  any  single  schedule  framed  to 
comprehend  them  all  becomes  in  itself  impracticable.  Yet  cer¬ 
tain  facts,  like  total  value  and  quantity  of  the  great  staple  prod¬ 
ucts,  ought  to  be  easily  ascertained.  The  question  of  renting 
or  ownership,  of  the  acreage  of  the  farms,  of  alien  ownership, 
are  entirely  within  the  possibilities  of  census  taking  without 
enlarging  the  field  of  operations.  Such  problems  ought  to  be 
readily  solved.  They  have  been  solved  for  the  time  being  in 


22 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


past  censuses.  As  the  conditions  vary  the  problems  vary,  and 
the  intelligence  of  the  government  should  see  to  it  that  the 
facts  sought  should  be  those  necessary  to  indicate  the  true 
relations  of  things  in  the  agricultural  field  of  knowledge. 

From  what  has  been  said  it  is  readily  seen  that  there  is  quite 
a  range  of  problems,  the  elements  for  the  solution  of  which  can 
only  be  supplied  through  comprehensive  censuses.  As  yet, 
however,  no  co-ordinate  effort  has  been  made  between  the  state 
and  federal  governments  for  systematic  work.  This  question 
is  difficult  and  yet  important.  Its  importance  lies  in  this  reflec¬ 
tion,  that  no  member  of  a  state  or  the  national  government  can 
intelligently  discuss  the  land  question,  the  solution  of  the  im¬ 
migration  problem,  the  question  of  how  far  educational  efforts 
shall  be  extended,  the  tariff  problem,  the  questions  of  cur¬ 
rency,  of  railroad  transportation,  in  fact,  any  question  of  any 
great  state  or  national  importance,  without  full  and  constant 
reference  to  the  tables  of  the  census  reports. 

This  being  the  case,  and  census  work  becoming  more  and 
more  complicated,  as  all  these  great  questions  come  nearer  and 
nearer  to  the  people,  how  important  it  is  that  the  whole  range 
of  census  taking  should  be  reduced  to  systematic  forms  and 
methods.  The  United  States  cannot  do  it  all,  and  do  it  well. 
The  country  is  too  large  to  admit  of  extended  inquiries  through 
the  methods  of  enumeration.  The  States  should  enlist  in  the 
work,  and  they  could  do  it  generally  without  much  expense 
through  their  established  machinery.  They  should  be  called 
upon  by  the  federal  government,  but  aided  to  the  extent  of  the 
results  furnished,  to  do  certain  things  at  short  intervals  rela¬ 
tive  to  the  enumeration  of  the  people,  the  ascertaining  of 
products,  the  ownership  of  land,  and  maybe  half-a-score  of 
leading  features,  the  federal  census  itself  being  confined  to  those 
things  which  reach  over  the  whole  country  and  which  may  be 
called  purely  national  topics.  Such  a  system,  involving  the 
co-operation  of  the  states,  would  not  only  simplify  labor,  but 
would  reduce  the  burden  in  many  respects  and  would  cer¬ 
tainly  remove  much  of  the  irritation  which  exists  whenever 
the  census  is  taken ;  and  further  simplification  should  be 
reached,  as  I  have  indicated,  through  special  investiga¬ 
tions.  All  census  work,  both  state  and  national,  should 
leave  out  of  sight  every  question  which  can  be  brought 


PROBLEMS  OF  THE  CENSUS. 


23 


under  the  methods  of  special  investigation,  in  which  aggregates 
are  not  essential  but  in  which  representative  facts  are  just  as 
important  as  the  total  facts. 

Expensive  as  have  been  the  censuses  of  the  United  States, 
the  money  appropriated  by  Congress  for  them  has  been  one  of 
the  most  valuable  investments  it  has  ever  made.  The  intelli¬ 
gence  of  the  people  has  been  raised  and  social  problems  have 
been  partially,  if  not  fully  solved.  The  highest  form  of  educa¬ 
tional  work  comes  through  statistical  efforts  and  labors,  and  the 
United  States  government  has  certainly  placed  itself  in  the 
very  front  rank  in  regard  to  this  great  field  of  knowledge. 
The  public  estimation  of  the  census  increases  also.  Critical 
as  the  press  may  be,  sceptical  as  the  public  may  become,  the 
census  supplies  the  chief  source  of  information  as  to  conditions, 
so  far  as  the  people  in  their  various  relations  are  concerned.  It 
is  unnecessary  to  make  any  argument  in  favor  of  the  census. 
It  is  wise  to  call  attention  to  its  defects  and  to  suggest  methods 
by  which  they  can  be  avoided,  by  which  it  can  become  more 
efficient,  by  which  increased  accuracy  shall  be  gained,  and  by 
which  the  census  appropriations  of  Congress,  and  of  various 
states,  shall  be  justified. 

This  association,  since  its  organization,  has  inculcated  most 
advanced  ideas  on  such  matters,  and  its  usefulness  in  the  future 
should  far  exceed  its  usefulness  in  the  past.  Its  influence  has 
been  salutary  ;  by  its  frequent  appeals  to  the  public  intelligence 
to  supply  sources  of  public  information,  it  does  its  best  and 
most  valuable  work  and  justifies  not  only  its  existence,  but  its 
prosperous  continuance. 


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